Tag Archives: process

In a World of Disasters: Where are we heading until Year’s End?

Almost two thirds of this year are gone. Where is the balance, so far, in global politics? It is summer time, so it is time for reflection.

As last December—when we asked you for the last time for a prognosis, the liberal world order, established after 1945—is in disarray. An alternative is not in sight. The American president is a loose cannon, erratic and unstable. Midterm elections may cost him the majority in at least one chamber of the House. China’s economy looks slightly more stable, but it is entangled in a trade war with the U.S. A medicine scandal is tainting the highly centralized Chinese system, so the buck has to stop at the top.

In the EU, another country is moving away from the basic consensus of the Paris Charter in 1990 – Italy. Half of voters in recent elections voted populist. An impending trade war with the U.S. is on hold, and may (or may not) commence later this year. In Russia, the soccer championship was enjoyable for many, but a much criticized pension reform is shifting the allegiances of the electorate away from the current powers. Ukraine is still not considered to have moved beyond Russia’s sovereignty. Internally, political issues in Ukraine are significant. India and Brazil  are facing their own domestic issues.

Climate change is on the march. We are experiencing one of the hottest summers on record. Plastic is covering ever bigger parts of the oceans (and the earth). The big IT companies are still unsure how to address data protection demands. And how to balance the freedom of expression, and the protection against ‘hate speech’. Protectionism and mercantilism are en vogue, as are nonsense concepts such as ‘alternative reality’. The independence of media has to be defended every month.

What is your forecast for the rest of the year? What can be expected?

-Klaus Segbers

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Will the rise of populist parties in the European parliament have an effect on the EU’s external relations and Europe’s geopolitical position?

The recent elections to the European parliament led to the expected rise of populist parties, advocating anti-EU messages and fusions of right and left-wing positions. While the pro-EU conservative, socialist and liberal party families still hold about two thirds of the seats, the rise of the rebels – particularly from France and the UK (winning in both countries by a landslide), Greece, Hungary, the Netherlands and Austria – constitutes a significant challenge.

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Is it time to forget about a Turkish perspective for merging Islam and democratisation? Is the EU itself partly to blame by dragging on ascension negotiations?

Over decades, a membership of Turkey in the EU has been debated and negotiated. Once again, the progress of negotiation seems to have stalled. There always were good reasons for finally integrating Turkey: a Muslim country as an EU-member state could demonstrate that the EU is not a “Club of Christians”. Also, Turkey’s influence in regional conflicts is substantial.

But the recent moves by the Erdogan government apparently put all hope for an EU-Turkish rapprochement to rest: the violent measures against the demonstrators around Gezi Park in 2013, voluntary shifting of hundreds of procurators and police officers, rude language from Prime Minister Erdogan himself, indicators of notorious corruption even in higher echelons of the state apparatus, increasing measures against social networks in Turkey, and the negligent reactions to the victims of the mining tragedy in Soma all show that Turkey may be sliding backwards.

, , , , , , , , , , , ,

How can the OECD countries cope with this challenge: accepting many asylum seekers claiming to be refugees, or carefully selecting qualifications and insisting on the given channels of immigration? Are quotas the only solution? What about amnesties for illegal migrants?

Waves of asylum seekers, many of whom are actually labour migrants, constantly struggle to reach the shores of more developed countries such as Australia, Southern Europe, the United States and elsewhere. We can see these movements both as human tragedies where help is required, and the resulting pushback as attempts to regulate human capital influx.

, , , , , , , , , , , ,

How can we explain the trend towards independence, separatism and attempts at nation-building when states are generally underperforming under the tsunami of capital flows, migration, and rapidly moving content?

(Paco Rivière/Flickr/Creative Commons)

How can we understand – beyond the differences – the similarities of cases like Catalonia, Crimea, Chechnya, the Karen state in Myanmar, Kashmir, Kosovo, the Kurds, Scotland, South Sudan, Xinjiang and Tibet in China, and most recently Venetia?

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,