How significant for global politics is the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections?

Most observers suggest that these results, which were not really unexpected, will not have major effects on global politics and international relations.

Today’s first question is: Do you agree with this?

A related question is—how do we see the American-Western and American-Asian agendas for the coming two years, i.e. before the next presidential elections, and what might be their impact on the next election campaign?

What are the major issues on these agendas—trade, security, Iran, Syria, INF/nuclear armament, and what else?


-Klaus Segbers

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  1. Justas Paleckis 9 months ago

    Looking from the eastern European Union flank, US midterm elections results are more positive than negative to President Trump. Therefore, it can be expected that within the next two years he will continue to pursue the same policy more strongly: America first, hard-won international treaties can be broken, everything is based on bilateral relations with the most powerful countries and their leaders, who may also be autocrats. It will add even more chaos to global politics and IR. But it will not matter much to the American voter if the economy will grow. The United States will make further efforts to disunite the EU by supporting Hungary, Poland, also Italy and encouraging other countries to move on the Eurosceptic path. On the other hand, there is a small possibility that D. Trump, significantly raising his country’s military budget, suddenly will make an agreement with Russia and China on the suspension of some elements of the arms race (let's recall his turns in relationship with North Korea).

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  2. Alexei Voskressenski 9 months ago

    US mid-term relations have mixed results: Democrats got a majority in the lower house but Republicans kept the majority in the Senate. Democrats got lesser places than Republicans in previous mid-term elections but they are now able to reformat electorial districts. It is easier for D. Trump to make appointments in the government but Republicans are clearly losing the support in the urban suburbs and among minorities and the colored groups. So, the election of Mr.Trump is not an accident but his politics does not necessarily ensure reelection. He already got his place in Americal political history but his further influence on Global Politics is less obvious. Trade, security, Iran, Syria, nuclear armament and Asia are on the agenda but the major issue is still the same: do we need more cooperation and consensus to ensure growth and development or less cooperation and more disruptive power politics including more armament and more military competition to have more pride of our poorer own?

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  3. Dmytro Sherengovsky 9 months ago

    The midterm elections turned out to bring predictable results. The party with President in the office usually losses the midterm since Reagan time, especially when the president has public support less than 50%. The US electoral system was formed to make evolution, not revolution, and its proved vitality even in times of Trump. Now, the Democratic House will have more possibilities to control committees while the Republican Congress will remain their legislative initiative. In any case, Trump succeeded to make the GOP more Trumpian, with more new supporters that that changed his opposition in offices.
    Moreover, the promised 'blue wave' turned out to be not more than a 'stream' with quite partial success, Probably this fact inspired him to tweet about 'Tremendous success' soon after the results. However, results will practically mean that President Trump will act in totally different political conditions with the democratic opposition, and with the need to have the support of 2 parties in any initiative. That will balance the US foreign policy while keeping the same political agenda. Democrats are more likely to pursue an agreement with China, try to restrain any administration overreach on trade, will push towards more strict environmental and labor provisions in upcoming US-Mexican agreement, and continue to determine the impact of Mueller investigation on US-Russian elections, while in general, Trump will be able to continue his 'America first' approach to global politics.

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  4. Thilo Bodenstein 9 months ago

    Both Democrats and Republicans are claiming victory in the midterm elections – or defeat. The results neither dethrone President Trump, nor do they pave the way to the White House for the Democrats. Nevertheless, they have major effects on global politics. A branch of statistics named after Thomas Bayes explains how updating of prior beliefs changes expected outcomes. The midterm elections were such an instance of Bayesian updating. It has become clear by now that the Trump presidency is not of a temporary nature and that ‘Trumpism’ will shape U.S. foreign policy for years to come. According to ‘Trumpism’ China is a rising and assertive power that has to be contained, first and foremost by means of trade policy measures. The failure of the APEC Summit in Port Moresby last week shows how tense the relations between the US and China have become. Trade will also remain high on the US-European agenda. Contrary to one of my earlier posts on this blog, I now acknowledge that the multilateral trading system might become collateral damage to Trump’s strategy.

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  5. Lwin Cho Latt 9 months ago

    The 2018 U.S. midterm elections’ results clearly showed Americans’ strong partisan identities and it, to a broader extent, would significantly affect both its domestic politics and foreign policy agenda. Trump’s ‘American First’ policy is still attractive for those who voted for his administrative durability while the others mainly concerns on the American’s democracy model that is getting down globally since his presidency. More interesting is that how Trump will deal his proposals with the Democrats and how his foreign policy shifts global structure for the next two years. Without a doubt, a Democratic-controlled House will make him difficult in using budget for his anti-migration policies on the legislative front. In addition, they will try to control for altering U.S policy on some contentious issues such as trade war with China, nuclear talks with Iran and North Korea, and U.S anti-internationalism. To me, the current global politics, played by Trump era, will greatly influence on the coming 2020 electoral politics of the U.S.

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