Brexit- What can be expected?

As things stand now, there are about ten weeks to go until the United Kingdom will crash out of the EU. There is not much doubt that this will be disruptive—for the EU member countries, especially for Ireland, and for the UK, particularly for Northern Ireland.

The attempts to finally agree on a divorce settlement between the EU and Great Britain were realized. But there is little chance that this settlement will be accepted in the British parliament. The few alternatives—the ‘Norwegian’ option, or a new referendum—face equally dark prospects.  To extend the period to allow for additional talks is also not possible. When the EU elections are held in May, everybody has to know whether or not British deputies are to be elected.

So what can we expect to happen in the case of a hard exit?

 

-Klaus Segbers

, , , , , , , , , , ,
  1. Justas Paleckis 3 weeks ago

    Indeed, four months later, the British will have to elect members of the European parliament. Or, they will not do that - this scenario is more likely now. But even in the latter case, I am optimistic about the EU-UK relations. During the past 60 years, the European Union has experienced very difficult times and several serious crises. The solution will be found this year as well. Even in the worst case - a hard exit – after a few years the UK will begin to come closer to the European Union again. And in the long run, perhaps, it will become a full-fledged member of the EU.

    Share >
  2. Dmytro Sherengovsky 3 weeks ago

    Definitely, the hard exit is not the best option, taking to account political risks and economic problems it may cause the next day after divorce. Nevertheless, the worst option will be delaying the decision in the state of uncertainty. Any other referendum can help to combat uncertainty but cause a further political crisis and polarize Britain for years. What if in a few years the opinion citizens will be changed and a 3rd referendum would be needed. Which referendum will be the final, then?
    The idea to untie hands for British export and trade immediately, without any restrictions is not the worst long-term advantage, even in the conditions of temporary economic turbulence. However, the absentees of decision regarding the border issue in Ireland could cause even the new escalation of the conflict, will obscure any economic hardships. It seems that London should choose which political crisis to live with, but no-decision is the best platform for any kind of speculations.

    Share >
  3. Stephanie von Kanel 3 weeks ago

    From an outsiders perspective it seems the 2016 Brexit vote has made an example of the UK ever since. As other member states witness the complexity involved in leaving the EU, Brexit seems to have become a deterrent for those contemplating a similar route.
    I have little idea of what the outcome could be, though a hard exit does seem possible following many failed proposals by the May government.
    What has been clear throughout the Brexit case is that the decision to leave the EU was not founded on long-term political strategy. It has in many ways pushed the UK backwards on contentious issues like the Northern Ireland/Ireland border and immigration. Moreover, this troublesome ‘divorce’ seems to have stagnated policy development and politics in the UK for the better part of 2 years. While there is a lot at stake for both sides, it seems at present the UK has more to lose.

    Share >

2 Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

 characters available

Let’s talk about BRICS


Does it still make sense to address the BRICS countries as a group, to see them as having numerous and significant similarities?