Will the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action survive US ratification? Could this agreement lead to a new role for Iran and serve as a stabilizing factor for the region?

The agreement between Iran and the ‘5 + 1′ group (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany) has been signed.

This seems to be good news for all parties involved for the following reasons: First, the economic sanctions against Iran will be lifted gradually. Second, the break-out options of a nuclear bomb for   Iran will be reduced. Third, western and Russian economic cooperation with Iran now has the ability to blossom. And lastly, some people are now able to visualize potential for a more moderate influence by Iran in the neighborhood of MENA.

BUT, it is not quite clear if the agreement will actually be ratified. In Iran the highest leader Khamenei has verbalized some critical remarks, but he seems to be in overall support of the agreement.

The Israeli government is openly ranting about their unwillingness to form any agreement with Iran, just as they have in the past. The most difficult impediment the final ratification is facing is coming from Washington. Congress is very skeptical, and may try to de-rail this agreement after all.

  1. Alexei Voskressenski 4 days ago

    Whatever skeptical we may be, the agreement with Iran is important because it gives us a hope of resolving challenges arising from the Middle Eastern conundrum especially in view of Mullah Omar death and the further possible strengthening of ISIS. Iran indeed as many argues may be an important new regional actor for moving the region for a better political and economic future. At least senior Singaporean diplomats and politicians as well as some Russian and Chinese diplomats and politicians argue for this option crediting Iranian leadership new constructive stance. It is also clear that President Obama and some senior European diplomats and politicians invested a lot in favor of this deal. We need now clear signs of new constructive efforts for resolving modern geopolitical deadlocks. If the Action plan is subverted before having a chance of being implemented 1) the chance of reducing possible Iranian nuclear threat is lost 2) those who a priori deny such a possibility will be responsible for loosing a chance not even trying this new geopolitical possibility.

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  2. Andrey Makarychev 15 hours ago

    To me, the most interesting part of the Iran story is Russia’s constructive engagement with Western powers on this issue, which of course didn’t remain unnoticed. There are, in my view, two reasons of why Russia cooperated, in spite of uncertainties over the question of whether full-fledged reconnection of Iran to the international society would be beneficial for Russia in terms of its energy strategy and regional policy in the Caucasus. First, Moscow understands that the negotiation over Iran is one of few remaining international platforms that connects Russia with the major Western actors. Thus, Russia does understands the dangers of complete diplomatic isolation that is not only hypothetical. Second, the Kremlin wished to publicly demonstrate that sanctions don’t work as an international policy instrument and ultimately have to be lifted, which is an argument that Russia tries to communicate to the West.

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